An Information Service of the Cuba Transition Project Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies University of Miami

 

Jaime Suchlicki*

      On January 28, General Raul Castro arrived in Moscow for a one week visit. This is the first time since 1984 that the younger brother visits Russia, this time as head of Cuba’s State. The only two trips abroad for Raul since assuming power in July 2006 have been to Venezuela and Brazil.

      Cuba’s objectives in renewing and expanding its relations with Russia are obvious. Russia is a former ally and an important international player with a seat at the United Nations Security Council. Cuba desperately needs all the foreign aid and credits it can get. Russia has been a traditional supplier of weapons and spare parts to Cuba and General Castro is interested in modernizing his armed forces.

      Then there is the oil issue. Cuba’s continuous dependence on Venezuelan oil is a source of concern for Raul and his military. The experience of 1989, when Soviet petroleum subsidies began drying up and Cuba was forced to pay for its petroleum needs in cash is still vivid in the minds of Cuba’s leadership. A change in Venezuela’s leadership may produce a similar situation once again. In the past year Raul has moved swiftly to expand relations with Iran, Angola, Brazil and Russia, all major oil producers. Not that any of these countries are going to emulate Venezuela in providing Cuba 92,000 barrels of petroleum per day on credit that Cuba will never be able to repay. Yet they can provide subsidized amounts and perhaps credits that would allow Cuba to adjust to a new reality without Venezuela’s largesse.

      Deciphering Russia’s motivation is a bit more complex. The Russians may want to use Cuba to tweak the U.S. over deployment of a nuclear shield in Eastern Europe. Putin may be interested in extending and reasserting Russian power and reach as evidenced by the recent visits of Russian ships to Venezuela and Cuba. Also Russia may want to show gratitude toward states that support its positions worldwide, especially the annexation of Osetia and Abkhazia. Cuba has shown solidarity with Russia’s foreign policy and supported Russian military aggression.

      The Russians are also concerned about Cuba’s debt dating from the Soviet era. Amounting to more than US $20 billion, the Russians would like to find a way to recover part of the debt or trade it for equity in some venture in Cuba. In 1990, I visited Moscow at the invitation of the Russian government. One of the main concerns then was what would happen to Cuba’s debt. My answer then, and still valid now: “Forget it. Castro does not usually pay his debts.”

      There may be a more ominous Russian objective in Cuba. During the Soviet era, the Russians built a sophisticated electronic facility near Havana to spy on U.S. military, civilian and industrial communications. Stealing technological secrets from the U.S. is cheaper than spending years and funds in research and development of new products. The Lourdes facility was dismantled in 2002 at the insistence of the U.S. government. It is possible that now under the guise of a space tracking station the Russians may rebuild that capability on the island. Discussions on the subject took place with Russian leaders that visited Cuba last year and again this week.

      The development of such facility in Cuba would provide the Russians an important and proximate listening post. It would enhance their warfare capabilities as the facility will probably have the ability for cyber warfare and would further allow Russian eavesdropping in the U.S.

      Notwithstanding the good will of the new U.S. administration, old alliances, national interests and objectives seem to take precedence over good relations with Washington. The cold war may be over, but Russian nationalistic and expansionist ambitions may not.

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* Jaime Suchlicki is Professor and Director, Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies, University of Miami. He is the author of Cuba: From Columbus to Castro, now in its fifth edition; Mexico: From Montezuma to NAFTA, now in its second edition and the recently published Breve Historia de Cuba.