In his first major policy initiative since assuming power, General Raul
Castro signed a far reaching military aid agreement with Russia. In September
2006, Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov, visited Cuba and signed an economic
aid pact providing Raul Castro with $350 million in credits to upgrade
Cuba's armed forces, including the acquisition of Russian transportation
equipment, air navigation systems, industrial goods for the energy sector,
and financing of future Russian investments in Cuba, among other projects.
Fradkov met with Raul Castro in a climate described as “cordial
and friendly” by the Cuban press.
This accord with the Russians rounds out Cuba's international alliances
with key strategic countries. They include Venezuela, China, and Iran.
Whether the Russian deal was in the making prior to Fidel Castro's surgery
or developed as a more recent initiative, reaffirms Raul Castro's long
standing admiration and support for Soviet policies in the past and for
Russian policies in the present.
As a young man, Raul traveled behind the iron curtain and became a member
of Cuba's Communist Party. Throughout the duration of the Soviet-Cuban
relationship (1960-1990), Fidel and Raul remained steadfast friends and
supporters of Soviet policies, particularly in Africa, where several hundred
thousand Cuban soldiers aided in bringing pro-Soviet and pro-Cuban regimes
to power in the African continent. Raul seems fascinated by the Soviet
military and displays photos and statues of Soviet generals in his office
in Havana.
It was only natural then that Raul would turn to his old allies and friends
for support as he consolidates power in Cuba. The Russians can provide
his military dictatorship, in addition to weapons, with credits to purchase
other Russian products. If the relationship with Venezuela were to sour
or Venezuela decreases its oil shipments to Cuba, the Russians could step
in and help. Much of Cuba's non-military equipment is Russian made and
requires upgrading and replacement. Finally, Russian international positions,
influence in the United Nations Security Council, and increasing defiance
of U. S. policies, fit Raul Castro's world view and interests.
What can the Russians expect from a renewed relationship with Cuba? For
starters, the Russians haven't given up on what they claim is Cuba's debt
from the Soviet era, approximately $20 billion. In 1991, I participated
in a conference on Cuban-Russian relations in Moscow, and the Russian
side, both academic and government officials, insisted that the Cuban
debt should be paid. My response then was that even if Cuba had the means,
it would not recognize or pay that debt, Castro would always claim that
Cuba's sacrifices in support of Soviet policies throughout the world far
surpassed Russian economic help to Cuba. The debt seems to have been off
the official agenda during Fradkov’s visit.
The Russians also may be interested in resuming and expanding Cold War
era espionage cooperation. The Soviet Union built the Lourdes electronic
eavesdropping facility near Havana and used it to spy on the American
military and technological secrets. It was closed by the Soviets following
U. S. pressure in the 1990's, but could be recreated in the island. The
Chinese have established a similar facility in Bejucal, Cuba, and the
Russians may look with envious eyes at the Chinese capacity to tap into
American military and civilian technology. Cooperation between the KGB
and Stasi-trained Cuban espionage services, one of the best in the world,
could resume, if it ever stopped, with the Cubans providing special help
to the Russians.
It is yet too early to tell how far Cuban-Russian cooperation will advance
or if it will represent a challenge to U. S. interests and security. Yet
the new military aid agreement and the new spirit of Russian-Cuban cooperation
may indicate a continuous Cuban militancy and opposition to U. S. policies
and a willingness to restart a relationship with an old, albeit much weaker
and somewhat different, ally.
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* Jaime Suchlicki is Professor and Director, Institute for Cuban and
Cuban-American Studies, University of Miami. He is the author of Cuba:
From Columbus to Castro, now in its fifth edition; Mexico: From
Montezuma to NAFTA, now in its second edition and the recently published
Breve Historia de Cuba.
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