 |
An
Information Service of the
|
Issue 98 |
July 21, 2008 |
Jaime Suchlicki*
| ||||||||
| A New Missile Crisis? |
| A more ominous and difficult crisis may be brewing in the Caribbean. Russia is again the principal actor, with Cuba or Venezuela the main supporting actors. On July 21, 2008, the Russian newspaper Izvestia, reported, citing an unidentified “highly placed” Russian military source, that Russia may send its military aircraft to bases in Cuba in response to U.S. plans to deploy elements of a missile defense in Europe. Russia has two aircrafts capable of flying directly to Cuba. The Russians supersonic Tu-160 a nuclear bomber known as the “White Swan” and the strategic bomber Tu-95 known as the “Bear” could be deployed. The Izvestia report, reproduced by the Moscow correspondent for Bloomberg Sebastian Alison, claims that only discussions are taking place at the Staff of Russia’s long-distance strategic aviation command. The Russian source is quoted as saying: “I am not going to say that there is nothing behind the talks.”(1) In mid July, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned that Moscow would take counter measures against U.S. plans and today former Russian top defense ministry official Leonid Ivashov said that Cuba could be best used by bombers for “brief stopovers.”(2) It is possible that the Russians may be willing to gamble again in Cuba. Yet given the difficult economic crisis Raul faces and the succession process taking place in the island, it is not likely that Raul and his military would like to promote a new crisis with the U.S. Russian nuclear bombers in Cuba may also violate the Kennedy/Khrushchev 1962 accord. Today, officials at the Russian Ministry of Defense denied that Russia is contemplating such a move, while the Kremlin declined to comment. The Russians denial, however, does not extend to Venezuela. Given the fact that President Hugo Chavez is visiting Moscow this week and that he has recently strengthened military ties with Russia, the timing of the Izvestia announcement raises a red flag. Chavez is shopping for Russian air defense systems, submarines and other weaponry. Since 2003, he has purchased more than $4. 4 billion of Russian military equipment. Venezuela is now Russia’s third biggest weapons customer after China and India. Does the price of Russian friendship include the possibility of Chavez allowing nuclear bombers being deployed or visiting briefly the South American country? If that were to happen, the U.S. would face a more difficult scenario than in 1962. Blockading Venezuela, given its size and borders, would be almost impossible. The Russian planes will not be sitting targets as the Russian missiles were in 1962, especially if Russian planes “visit briefly” Venezuelan airfields. The Russian action would not necessarily be considered illegal and the widespread support the U.S. received from the world community in 1962 would be impossible to duplicate. If the Russians decide to gamble in Cuba or Venezuela, it would represent a challenge to the current and future administration in Washington, one perhaps more complicated than the 1962 nuclear crisis. _______________________________________ Notes (1) “Russia
May Send Military Aircraft Back to Cuba” by Sebastian Alison,
Bloomberg, July 21, 2008. _______________________________________ * Jaime Suchlicki is the Emilio Bacardi Moreau Distinguished Professor and Director, Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies, University of Miami. He is the author of Cuba: From Columbus to Castro and Beyond, now in its fifth edition. |