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Welcome to The Latell Report. The Report, analyzing
Cuba's contemporary domestic and foreign policy, is published
monthly and distributed by the electronic information service
of the Cuba Transition Project (CTP) at the University of Miami's
Institute for Cuban and Cuban-American Studies (ICCAS).
The Latell Report is a publication of ICCAS and
no government funding has been used in its publication. The
opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not
necessarily reflect the views of ICCAS and/or the U.S. Agency
for International Development (USAID).
Has the Transfer of Power
Begun?
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Signs of what is probably accelerating succession
planning at the highest levels of the Castro regime have been
multiplying since early this month. As Fidel Castro’s
ability to provide coherent leadership has conspicuously deteriorated,
his brother Raul seems to be assuming broader responsibilities,
while also reaching out to improve his image with the Cuban
people. These developments could even indicate that Raul has
already assumed critical responsibilities from his brother and
is now acting as Cuba’s de facto top decision
maker.
Raul has been asserting personal control over the
communist party apparatus, highlighting its likely enhanced
role in the future. He has been focusing intense and sympathetic
media attention on himself, while also emphasizing the strength
and unity of the armed forces he has run since 1959. He has
been out in public much more than has been customary, regularly
now appearing on the front page of the official communist party
daily, Granma. Cuban media coverage of the younger
Castro has reached such unprecedented intensity in fact, that
it seems logical to conclude that he has authorized the creation
of his own public relations staff. Always deferential to Fidel’s
starring role in the Cuban revolution, Raul would never in the
past have presumed to upstage his brother this way.
The media blitz began on June 3rd, Raul’s
75th birthday, when Granma, ran a remarkable, extended
paean to the defense minister. Under the headline, Cercania
de Raul, literally translated as “nearness”
to Raul, the article was intended in part to project a sympathetic
image of a leader who has never been popular with the Cuban
people. But the Spanish language title of the article also suggests
a possibly momentous double meaning: Cercania de Raul
might also be translated as the “proximity of Raul,”
suggesting that his ascent to power in his own right has begun,
or is imminent. I do not believe that Raul has ever been the
subject of such unusual and personalized media attention.
The Granma birthday article was unprecedented
in a number of respects. The authors, longtime close personal
friends of Raul, seemed intent on distinguishing him favorably
from Fidel, which would have been inconceivable until now. The
“modesty and simplicity” that Raul demonstrates
“in personal interactions” according to the authors,
certainly contrasts with Fidel’s grandiosity.
Raul, the article emphasized, avoids making “unilateral
assessments.” Instead –and notably unlike his brother—he
always encourages “collective” approaches to solving
problems. The implication in this, and other similar references
in the article, as well as in a pointed passage in a speech
Raul delivered to a military audience on June 14th, is probably
that he intends to govern at the head of a collective civilian-military
team. He seems to be signaling other Cuban officials that he
does not plan to occupy all of the most important positions
of power in the party and government, as Fidel does. That is
a sound strategy for assuring leadership support for Raul’s
uncontested succession.
His “deeply humane character,” devotion
to his family, and concern for his responsibilities as a father
and grandfather, as described in the article, also distinguish
him from Fidel who has almost never even acknowledged the existence
of his extended family. Raul, was said to be “good natured,
kind, and funny,” adjectives that are rarely applied to
his brother. In these and other similar descriptions of Raul,
the intent was to correct the prevailing image of him as ruthless
and draconian.
Raul’s skills as an administrator and organizer
also contrast with Fidel’s penchant for extravagance and
disorganization. The article stated that Raul is “a highly
organized, disciplined, systematic, and demanding man.”
Pointedly, it also highlighted the fact that he is always conscious
of the costs of policy decisions. “How much fuel is consumed
in moving troops?” he reportedly wants to know, for example.
“What is the cost of this maneuver?’’ Fidel
characteristically has little interest in such boring details.
The authors of the Granma article also
include a veiled reference to the Castro brothers’ relationship
that I believe is without precedent, on or off the record until
now in the entire history of the revolution. They refer to the
“difficult and complex responsibility that comes with
being second in command.” Do they mean that the brothers
have come to disagree about critical policy directions? Are
they and Raul suggesting that he is now ready to emerge from
Fidel’s overwhelming shadow, to put his own stamp on Cuban
policy? Is this long-repressed younger brother now coming out
into the full glare of leading Cuba?
Another shrouded but portentous reference in the
article suggests that may be the case. The authors recall events
of March 1958 when Raul took command of his own guerrilla forces
that would then operate in the Sierra Cristal mountain range
of eastern Cuba independently of Fidel's troops in the Sierra
Maestra. “It would be the first time” since the
opening campaigns of the revolution in July 1953, according
to the article, “that Fidel and Raul would not be together.”
The article concludes with several passages drawn
from Fidel’s speeches and interviews over the years, in
which he certifies his brother as his legitimate and preferred
successor. “In my opinion, the colleague that was best
prepared and that I knew could very well carry out the task
was comrade Raul.” And, Fidel is also quoted as once having
said: “everybody knows we hate nepotism here. (But) I
honestly think that (Raul) has the sufficient qualities to substitute
for me in case I die in this battle."
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Dr. Brian Latell, distinguished Cuban analyst
and recent author of the book, After Fidel: The Inside Story
of Castro’s Regime and Cuba’s Next Leader, is a
Senior Research Associate at ICCAS. He has informed American
and foreign presidents, cabinet members, and legislators about
Cuba and Fidel Castro in a number of capacities. He served in
the early 1990s as National Intelligence Officer for Latin America
at the Central Intelligence Agency and taught at Georgetown
University for a quarter century. Dr. Latell has written, lectured,
and consulted extensively.
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The CTP, funded by a grant
from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID),
can be contacted at P.O. Box 248174, Coral Gables, Florida 33124-3010,
Tel: 305-284-CUBA (2822), Fax: 305-284-4875, and by email at
ctp.iccas@miami.edu.
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